Is the Indian media overinterpreting Pranab Mukherjee's statement about not ruling out Military option? Pranab Mukherjee was specifically asked "is the military option open". Isn't is obvious that no government will rule out military option in such a situation, when specifically asked, although it may not be actually contemplating a military action? The BIG question is, would India seriously consider the Military option if Pakistani government continues with its 'inaction' and 'rhetoric' or is this merely part of 'pressure tactics'?
Zardari refuses India's demand
India, a couple of days ago gave a list of around 20 most wanted people, including the leader of banned terrorist organisation LeT and the leader of Jaish-e-Muhammed. Pakistan's president today rejected India's demand and said that it would act only after India provides evidence, and even in this case, it would not hand over the terror suspects to India but would try it in its own court.
Type of evidence India has or is gathering
The investigation of Mumbai attacks is still going on. However India has the following already.
- Confessions made by captured terrorist Azam Amir Qasab.
- GPS device found in Kuber, the ship used by terrrorists, which traces the route of the terrorists back to Pakistan. This is one of the strongest evidences we have.
- Phone calls made to Pakistan from mobile phones recovered from the terrorists.
- Intercepts of phone conversations between terrorists.
- Ongoing investigation about the fishing trawler Kuber captured and used by terrorists. Articles like matchboxes, toothpaste etc. recovered from this trawler have been found of Pakistani origin.
If this is not enough evidence of Pakistani links of the terrorists then what is? Also, Lashkar-e-Taiba is an internationally banned terrorist organisation. Why is Pakistan protecting its chief? Remember the LeT chief Hafiz
Muhammad Saeed has made public appearance in Pakistan as late as October 2008.
What is at stake if India attacks?
The decision to launch attack on Pakistan may seem natural for an angry Indian, but it is not an easy decision. It is complicated by the following.
- Any attack will result in loss of life even on Indian side. Remember, in a war like Kargil, India lost around 800 soldiers.
- India needs to have 'specific' information on terror camps, to actually launch a meaningful military operation. It is quite possible, that all terror suspects India needs are already in a safe haven right now, anticipating India's military action. So India cannot hope to 'kill' the terror suspects it wants Pakistan to hand it over. It can however expect to attack terror infrastructure and young-trainee-terrorists.
- Any activity of war will have a large negative impact on the Indian Economy.
- India and Pakistan are both nuclear countries. Any military option must be carefully calculated and care must be taken so that it does not escalate to a full fledge Nuclear war.
- Perhaps as important as the negative impact on Indian economy of any military action, is the negative impact on Pakistani economy. This is because the more poor people in Pakistan, the more Pakistani based terrorist organisations like LeT gets 'bakras' for recruitment.
- The change of focus of Pakistani military from its Afghan borders to Indian borders will help Taliban grow stronger. This, in the long run, is going to lead to more terrorism problems.
Any Indian Citizen, who supports India's military action against Pakistan must be aware of the above costs and difficulties.
UPDATE : Recently India has announce that it has no plans for a Military strike on Pakistan. If indeed, this terrorist attack was an attempt by Taliban, Lashkar-e-Toiba and others to divert the attention of Pak army from Pakistan-Afghanistan border to the Indian border, I fear that in situation of heightened tensions, these terrorists will try to make one more attempt. It is believed that the terrorist attack on Indian Parliament in 2001 was also a (successful) attempt by the terrorists to relieve some pressure off Pak-Afghan border.
Some more remarks:- Indian government does not have sufficient evidence to say that Pakistan government (or army) is directly involved in these acts. However there is convincing evidence to show that Pakistani soil, terror camps in Pakistan, were used to launch attacks on India. It is Pakistan's government lack of action which is regrettable.
- Joint India-Pakistan team for investigation is impossible due to complete lack of trust on both sides. So any suggestions in this direction amount to mere rhetoric. The lack of trust is from both sides.
If you have any interesting point to make, please spare a moment to post your opinion in a
comment.
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