Interest rates, Crude Oil and Deflation

Four related news all consistent with the prediction of Deflation.

  • US cuts interest rates to 0.25%. An all time low since the records began !
  • Bank of Japan cuts interest rates from an already low of 0.30% to 0.1%. Practically 0%
  • India's inflation continues the drop to 6.8%. Likely to fall below 3 to 4% level in one or two quarters especially given the fact that government is considering one more petrol-diesel price cut.
  • Crude oil suffers a sharp drop in prices last night. Currently Crude oil is trading at around $36 per barrel. This is despite a record production cut of 2.2 barrels per day by oil producing countries announced about two days ago.

Personally I consider price of crude oil as an important 'litmus test' of how well the global economy is doing. Thus yesterday's sharp drop in crude oil prices is seen by me as an 'alarm'. It is very difficult to predict how long the recession will last etc. What is easy to say is 'it is going to get worse before it gets any better'.

Dec 19, 2008

Custom Search

  © 2008