Will India Attack Pakistan?

Is the Indian media overinterpreting Pranab Mukherjee's statement about not ruling out Military option? Pranab Mukherjee was specifically asked "is the military option open". Isn't is obvious that no government will rule out military option in such a situation, when specifically asked, although it may not be actually contemplating a military action? The BIG question is, would India seriously consider the Military option if Pakistani government continues with its 'inaction' and 'rhetoric' or is this merely part of 'pressure tactics'?

Zardari refuses India's demand
India, a couple of days ago gave a list of around 20 most wanted people, including the leader of banned terrorist organisation LeT and the leader of Jaish-e-Muhammed. Pakistan's president today rejected India's demand and said that it would act only after India provides evidence, and even in this case, it would not hand over the terror suspects to India but would try it in its own court.

Type of evidence India has or is gathering
The investigation of Mumbai attacks is still going on. However India has the following already.
  • Confessions made by captured terrorist Azam Amir Qasab.
  • GPS device found in Kuber, the ship used by terrrorists, which traces the route of the terrorists back to Pakistan. This is one of the strongest evidences we have.
  • Phone calls made to Pakistan from mobile phones recovered from the terrorists.
  • Intercepts of phone conversations between terrorists.
  • Ongoing investigation about the fishing trawler Kuber captured and used by terrorists. Articles like matchboxes, toothpaste etc. recovered from this trawler have been found of Pakistani origin.
If this is not enough evidence of Pakistani links of the terrorists then what is? Also, Lashkar-e-Taiba is an internationally banned terrorist organisation. Why is Pakistan protecting its chief? Remember the LeT chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed has made public appearance in Pakistan as late as October 2008.

What is at stake if India attacks?
The decision to launch attack on Pakistan may seem natural for an angry Indian, but it is not an easy decision. It is complicated by the following.
  • Any attack will result in loss of life even on Indian side. Remember, in a war like Kargil, India lost around 800 soldiers.
  • India needs to have 'specific' information on terror camps, to actually launch a meaningful military operation. It is quite possible, that all terror suspects India needs are already in a safe haven right now, anticipating India's military action. So India cannot hope to 'kill' the terror suspects it wants Pakistan to hand it over. It can however expect to attack terror infrastructure and young-trainee-terrorists.
  • Any activity of war will have a large negative impact on the Indian Economy.
  • India and Pakistan are both nuclear countries. Any military option must be carefully calculated and care must be taken so that it does not escalate to a full fledge Nuclear war.
  • Perhaps as important as the negative impact on Indian economy of any military action, is the negative impact on Pakistani economy. This is because the more poor people in Pakistan, the more Pakistani based terrorist organisations like LeT gets 'bakras' for recruitment.
  • The change of focus of Pakistani military from its Afghan borders to Indian borders will help Taliban grow stronger. This, in the long run, is going to lead to more terrorism problems.
Any Indian Citizen, who supports India's military action against Pakistan must be aware of the above costs and difficulties.


UPDATE : Recently India has announce that it has no plans for a Military strike on Pakistan. If indeed, this terrorist attack was an attempt by Taliban, Lashkar-e-Toiba and others to divert the attention of Pak army from Pakistan-Afghanistan border to the Indian border, I fear that in situation of heightened tensions, these terrorists will try to make one more attempt. It is believed that the terrorist attack on Indian Parliament in 2001 was also a (successful) attempt by the terrorists to relieve some pressure off Pak-Afghan border.


Some more remarks:
  • Indian government does not have sufficient evidence to say that Pakistan government (or army) is directly involved in these acts. However there is convincing evidence to show that Pakistani soil, terror camps in Pakistan, were used to launch attacks on India. It is Pakistan's government lack of action which is regrettable.
  • Joint India-Pakistan team for investigation is impossible due to complete lack of trust on both sides. So any suggestions in this direction amount to mere rhetoric. The lack of trust is from both sides.
If you have any interesting point to make, please spare a moment to post your opinion in a comment.

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Dec 3, 2008

6 comments:

Parag December 3, 2008 at 1:33 PM  

I dont think India will attack Pakistan. It will mean a huge cost for India and moreover it will shift focus of Pakistani's army from Pak-Afghan border, something which is not favorable to the US. These are all just pressure tactics.

Rahul December 3, 2008 at 1:53 PM  

In Kargil, Prime ministry restrict Aire force and ground forces by ordered them not to cross the LOC,not even a bullet will go across the LOC. So it restrict air force from direct use of Warcraft, air force used the coppers to kill the terrorists. It causes over 1000 thousand ground solider died while fighting for the country.

Entire POK is used for trainning camp, It is the major issue, even if we only destroy those camp, Terrorist activity will not stop,we must control that part of our country.POK must be changed to Kashmir control by INDIA.

Indian Economy depends on its people and its strong coperate sector and also their reaction to situation. Pakistan depend on us as well as all supreme powers market depends on Big INDIAN market. Also if you not watched the news and analyse current econamy of the INDIA you need to devote some time on it.

INDIA economy is totally different from other country and India already recover from the crisis.

Nuke Nuke Nuke, what do you think about nuke,Nuke is a big thing, country like pakistan can't use it for the attack on POK,this attack is not concentrated on pakistan,its for POK.If they fire even an one nuke, entire world community jumps on pakistan and take control over their nuke facility. I think you forget US army in pakistan afganistan border.

So you want to see more soldiers blood in future. also wait for the pakistan develop more advance nuke like neutron bombs

It is the time to take POK back. else future is tooooo dark.

Ashish December 3, 2008 at 2:49 PM  

I think India will be attack on pak but wait weapon donot know who is friend or enemy it kill both. when war will launch it means both country have to pay cost.

this time pak have very poor economy and have onlt 15 day as per media and this is time when can put deplometic presure for not granting releafe fund.

if this will not work then we have no option mean they think now they have nothing to loose then destroy them. but again both have nucleare weapon who fire first will have chance to win we know we are large then them so it is not that much easy win over us.

I have another Question what is china is doing I have not listen any thing from those guy are they with us or not, because every time when we are trouble they keep smile on us.

I do not think that there is any debate or proof about whether India is justified. India is justified in doing whatever is necessary in its self-defense.

After all inmy personally view to put diplomatic presure if not works then only option is bettel field.

ghous December 16, 2008 at 5:23 PM  

Well Indians are very childish in their approach. We all know they love to copy from their superiors hence they establishing a same plot what USA did by setting up 9/11 drama and attacking Afghanistan. A hotel of 500+ rooms with more than 30 exit points can never be intruded by a dozen of militant unless not provided with assistance by local bodies.Indian Coast guards an navy must be the worst in the world if this number of militants made their way by sea.
Walking into the hotel with heavy weapons should never be that easy in hotel of such high profile unless not welcomed by some one who had known it from beginning. Alas the truth nowadays always find lost behind the lies, see in case of Iraq biological weapons of mass destruction.The whole country torn apart on one single lie and Indian are trying to do the same, But India has a lot to lose even USA has lost his ground while fighting the false war against Iraq and Afghanistan. Car India's premature economy can take this war on.

Anonymous December 24, 2008 at 4:46 PM  

I think india must attack on Pakistan by seeing the present situation, because pakistan not ready to accept that terrorists are their in pakistan, if we leave now this terror attack will increase again and again.

I think US is playing a game here???

Riz Khan December 28, 2008 at 12:28 AM  

In fact, US is using India as a hunter dog against Pakistan. The main purpose is to weaken both countries and have their supremacy in the region against China and Russia...

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