Chinese economy and its growth in the past decade was mainly export driven. China is well known for producing cheap goods and whow is not aware of the 'made in chinese' brand?

However Chinese exports have seen a fall of 10% in january 2009 as compared to the same month previous year. This is the biggest drop in exports in the past 10 years. A couple of days ago, BBC had an article claiming that around 20 million jobs have been lost in China. These employees were mostly migrants from local villages and their jobs were mostly related to Chinese exports in some way or the other. It is increasingly believed that by end of 2009 China may slip into recession.

Especially after 2008 quarterly and annual results, the impact of economic slowdown has become much more evident and clearer. It had become clearer that the crisis that started with US Subprime is much deeper than thought earlier. It is despite this fact that new data on economies keep surprising us, they turn out to be worse than our already lowered expectations.
This is perhaps the most troubling point of this news.

2009 in all likelihood is going to be much worse for global economy than 2008. What exactly does 2009 have in store for us? We will have to wait and see. But one thing is clear- no matter what you expect- learn to be not surprised by worse than expected results !

Feb 11, 2009

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