when will crude drop below 100?

Ever since crude dropped straight from $147 to $113, the demand seems to be dropping and the dollar strenghtening. Inspite of this crude oil is still around $115, thanks to georgian crisis. I would have imagined the georgian crisis to be over after truce calls. But now georgia is out of the picture and US is in. now the tensions are between two equals or at least comparable players. Who knows how long will crude wait at 115 for the next downward move ?

Remember, currently the crude oil has completely ignored possibilities of attack on Iran. The likeliness of this event seems to have definitely reduced with the current political instability in Israel. But nowhere have we seen an actual peaceful solution coming up through dialogues. Iran has been defiant and probably will remain so. Around december, if i remember correctly, Iran is to aquire anti aircraft weapons (from Russia ?) and if at all Israel is planning for an attack, they will definitely watch this date. Another warning from Israel to Iran and the crude will shoot up by god knows how much !. So maybe the first question to ask is, despite demand destruction, will the crude oil drop below $100 in the coming month or two ?

Aug 25, 2008

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