Put Call outlook - august 8

Three most active puts and calls.

Nifty Option Open Interest Chance in OI
4500 CE
2,866,650 181,000 (+6.74%)
4400 PE 2,589,200 243,800 (+10.39%)
4600 CE 2,191,500 600 (+0.03%)
4500 PE
2,168,450 134,150 (+6.59%)
4700 CE
2,470,750 86,150 (+3.61%)
4300 PE 3,550,600 135,700 (+3.97%)

Nifty August 28 Futures : +20 premium.

The market expectation is positive. However note the negligible change in OI of 4600 CE. Is this an indication that nifty will find it difficult to remain around 4600 and will either drop back or jump once it reaches 4600. We have seen this phenomenon twice in last week. Also, last week the market has been showing strong tendancy to hover around 4500.

This was on Friday. After that the crude has dropped another $4. It will be interesting to see how OI for 4600 CE changes this monday morning. The picture will become even more clearer on Tuesday after release of July IIP. The movement of crude, how much does it drop further and when / if will it rebound, remains a mystery for me. However since demand destruction is cited as the current cause of crude fall, it could fall further before / if it rebounds.

Aug 10, 2008

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