Indian Investor's nightmare : subprime in India

I came across this article in economic times which talks about fall in commercial rental rates. May be this is not the first article on drop in real estate prices, but the first that i have come across. Have to start looking for more such news. Especially in cities like Bangalore and Hyderabad.

If real estate prices do start dropping, then Indian Banks will probably start tracing the path that currently US Banks are walking. In the US the first phase of subprime was caused by housing loan defaults by relatively poor people with low credit history. If I would have to imagine subprime in India, i would imagine here the IT people would contribute to the first phase. With Europe/US heading towards recession, the IT industry, employing a large portion of the higher middle class in India will be one of the worst hit. Already they have starting laying off people. Imagine an IT guy/girl with 40-50K salary , and has taken 20Lacs rupees of housing loan is a victim of a mass lay-off. Add to this the effect of high interest rates, high inflation and dropping real estate prices. To me it looks like a perfect recepie for subprime !. As of now maybe this idea of subprime in India sounds too pessimistic. Who can tell? We will have to wait and watch.

Aug 12, 2008

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