Put Call outlook - august 11

Three most active puts and calls.

Nifty Option Open Interest Chance in OI
4600 CE
2,396,350 20,4850 (+9%)
4700 CE
2,813,450 342,700 (+14%)
4800 CE 2,559,450 390,650 (+18%)
4500 PE
2,763,550 595,100 (+27%)
4400 PE
3,267,850 678,650 (+26%)
4600 PE
1,467,700 609,850 (+71%)
A large number of options added in open interest today, with put options added more than twice of those of call options. Tomorrow we might see nifty going down. Because oil may not immediately fall a lot until Georgia crisis cools down and by looking at those numbers added in PE options, it looks like everyone is expecting bad IIP numbers tomorrow.

In general we may be in for some huge up or down in the remaining part of this month. The long term fundamentals, after bad Q1 results, are trying to pull nifty down and falling crude is trying to push the global stocks and in particular nifty up. Inspite of Georgia crisis, the oil rose by only about a dollar. To me this is an indication that once Georgia crisis are over, ( maybe in a few days or one or two weeks? ) oil will fall further. Imagine a news "oil below $100", thats the reason for the open interest in all those call options, although several of you staring at the fundamentals maybe wondering, what the hell is Nifty doing above 4600 ?

Aug 11, 2008

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